Wealth Management | Silversage Advisors

Financial Planning In The Coronavirus Economy

by Jeff Garell • April 13, 2020July 22, 2020

As we’ve discussed many times before, both in person, as well as in our writings, investment risks and expected rewards are related. We are certainly experiencing that now. Here are three encouraging thoughts to keep you grounded right now.

1. PREPARATION BEATS PANIC – While conversations about risk and return during stable times may seem abstract to you, that perhaps we’re “checking the boxes” professionally, we intentionally do this to understand YOU and assess your goals and risk tolerance, in order to invest each account into its most appropriate model. You might have a completed financial plan or retirement plan that drives the conversation about necessary returns to achieve your goals. Even if you do not have a formal plan, our portfolio modeling conversations always center on financial planning principles, i.e. your age, circumstances, risk tolerance, income needs household goals, and the intent for each account.

We have already collaborated with you to help identify the right balance to strike between accepting risk and “reward”, or necessary returns for each account. We then build and manage each broadly diversified portfolio using thoughtfully-researched investment positions. We’ve already done that…together.

We’ve already prepared the hard work on the front end to assemble your purpose-driven portfolios. Today’s hard work is recognizing that your investment plan is in place, we have accounted for periodic declines, even severe ones, and “active patience” is the best strategy for riding out this current environment.

2. PATIENCE WINS – Our advice on investing during volatile times remains the same: patience wins. That is fact-based going back 75 years to the end of World War II, i.e. the ‘modern investing era.’ Numerous studies conclude that sticking with initially-modeled portfolios through market cycles leads to investment success. Risks do drive expected returns.

However, we also understand that for some people fear may be stronger than greed, which motivates some clients to sell or change models for fear of “losing everything.” These few clients usually make emotional portfolio changes at or near market bottoms. They receive the initial satisfaction that they “did something” to preserve their capital; though ultimately most of these clients wind up financially lesser off because they either don’t go back into their previous models, or they re-enter after the news has brightened and the markets recovered past their sell point. Consider this:

As a train needs its engine to move, markets require risks to drive them onward and upward.

Rather than focusing on daily headlines and account balances, try to understand that your portfolios are already geared to weather today’s declines, and to recover when the recovery happens. Since 1945, the market has always recovered, so why should this time be any different? Ben Carlson, author of “Don’t Fall For It: A short History of Financial Scams,” wrote:

“Every successful investor must understand there is a sacred relationship between risk and reward. There is no proven way to earn a high return on your capital without taking some form of risk nor is it possible to completely extinguish risk from your investments.”

We simply define “high” in the above statement as anything above cash returns, and specifically not inappropriately aggressive. That would be imprudent.

3. WE STAND WITH YOU – As we work our way through the pandemic’s effects on our social lives and your portfolio, you might be wondering if your risk tolerance isn’t what you thought it would be during a crisis like this. If so, consider yourself normal! Even those who cognitively understand the wisdom of staying the course, emotionally it’s not easy for some. We still suggest that you reassess after the storm has passed. You wouldn’t expect someone to assess the damage to your paint and roof in the middle of a hailstorm, so why do that with your portfolio? Sit tight, let it pass. Once things stabilize, make sure to let us know that you’d like to revisit your risk tolerance and goals in order to ensure your portfolio modeling is correct.

We cover this during your Annual Review and periodic conversations, but if it’s on your mind now, please contact us. Together, we’ll objectively look at your situation and feelings to continue to chart a sensible course forward.

OTHER HELPFUL INFORMATION

As you may know, Congress and the Treasury Department have worked together to provide relief to individuals and small businesses, such as the CARES Act. Click here for an excellent CARES Act Commentary by Steve Leimberg, a well-regarded author in our field.

Some highlights:

Tax filing deadlines have been extended to July 15.
Retirement contribution deadlines, such as IRAs that had an April 15 deadline, are also moved to July 15, with some deadlines extended to tax filing dates on extension.
Required Minimum Withdrawals are suspended for 2020. You do not need to take them. If you have already taken your 2020 RMD, and would like to put it back into your IRA, you are able to do so up until July 15. This does NOT apply to RMDs taken in the month of January, only for those taken February 1 and later. Further, RMDs from non-spouse beneficiary IRAs are suspended, but if you’ve already taken the RMD, you can not roll it back into the IRA, since non-spousal rollovers are disallowed anyway.
Mortgage Forbearance – While recent regulations have allowed for certain homeowner’s mortgage forbearance relief, our mortgage experts warn about being careful in this area. It should only be used as a last resort, especially since it has not been made clear how your credit rating may or may not be affected. It could be very difficult for a credit bureau to determine if your situation is reasonable, or a late payment. Be careful, check with a mortgage expert before going that route.
Conversion to Roth IRA – This could be a good year to convert part or all of your IRA to a Roth IRA: 1) if your 2020 income is expected to be much lower, then perhaps the tax cost of conversion makes sense, and 2) converting existing IRA assets at lower market prices could provide you with a significant tax benefit as the assets recover in the tax-free Roth.
Withdrawals from Qualified 401k/ERISA Retirement Plans – There are many, so if you need relief by accessing your retirement account with us or your company-sponsored plan, PLEASE contact us first as there are also potholes to consider.

Finally, Winston Churchill wrote, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” We shall get through this, and patience is one of our greatest allies. Stay strong, stay healthy.

Jeff Garell, CFP®
Michael Campbell
Bob Emmer, CFP®

What Does Tax Reform Mean For Investors?

by Jeff Garell • December 11, 2018December 17, 2018

If you’re like us, visions of sugarplums aren’t the only things dancing through your head this time of year. Major changes in tax policy — the biggest reform in three decades — have given both investors and firms like Silversage Advisors a lot to consider in their financial planning as 2018 comes to a close.

Overall, the tax reform this year provided several ways for investors to reduce their tax bill or increase their refund. The change with the most direct impact has been the decline in tax rates for most income brackets…but there were a number of less-publicized changes as well.

Here’s a brief overview of the most significant tax reform changes:

Higher Standard Deductions

One of the major benefits for many individual taxpayers is the higher standard deduction, which is now $12,000 for individuals — up from $6,350 last year. For married couples filing jointly, that deduction is now $24,000, up from $12,700 in 2017.

With nearly double the standard deduction, taxpayers who typically itemize should revisit whether that strategy is still in their best interest. Of course, if deductions such as charitable donations, interest on student loans, etc. exceed the higher standard deduction, it still pays to itemize.

Limited Mortgage Deductions

Now, homeowners can only deduct interest on mortgages of up to $750,000, down from $1 million allowed by the previous tax policy. This also applies to home equity loans if they are used to purchase a second property. And interest paid on home equity lines of credit is no longer tax deductible.

Business Income Deductions

Tax reform has also brought major changes for the way business income is taxed. For C corporations (where business income is taxed separately from an owners’ income), the tax rate was cut to 21% from 35%.

Other “pass-through” entities — sole proprietorships, LLCs, partnerships and S corps (which have fewer than 100 shareholders and are typically taxed as a partnership) — have also been affected. Many of these business owners will see a new deduction of 20% for qualified “pass-through” business income, a popular form of business income that is not taxed at the corporate level.

For many business owners, the revised deduction will reduce their income and provide the kind of tax savings found in a lower tax bracket. Those in a high tax bracket with a 37% rate could possibly bump down to a tax bracket with the lower rate of 29.6%. This deduction is reduced if the owner’s income is more than $157,500 if filing individually, or $315,000 if married filing jointly.

Limited SALT Deductions

High-income earners in high-tax states like California and New York will likely pay more in federal taxes as a result of the SALT (State And Local Tax) deductions now being limited to $10,000.

For perspective, 33.86% of California returns filed in 2014 included a deduction for state and local taxes according to IRS data. The average California SALT deduction was $17,148.35.

Expanded 529 Education Plans

Traditionally, 529 savings accounts were adopted to help families save for a college education. They allow funds to grow tax-free until withdrawn for qualified education expenses such as tuition, supplies, computers, etc. But for federal tax purposes, the new changes have expanded the use for these plans to include attendance costs for private or religious elementary and secondary school tuition. In many (but not all) states, these new uses have been approved for state tax benefits as well.

For primary education (K-12) expenses, funds in a 529 account can be used to pay for up to $10,000 each year per student (there’s no limit for qualified college expenses). Contribution limits are unchanged at $15,000 per year for individuals and $30,000 for joint filers.

Unchanged Policies

Although tax policy has incurred considerable changes, some policies many thought would be included in the overhaul have remained intact. For example, taxes on capital gains and dividends still start at 15% for taxpayers in the lower brackets and up to 23.8% for those in the highest. And retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs continue to provide the same tax breaks.

For traditional IRAs and employer-offered 401(k) plans, taxpayers can deduct any contributions made to these accounts from their income tax, and delay paying a tax until they withdraw the money in retirement years. For Roth accounts, investors who deposited funds over the years can continue to rely on that money not being taxed when they withdraw it.

It’s always wise to consult your tax adviser and/or CPA when considering year-end tax strategies. We wish you a prosperous new year and are happy to discuss any questions you have regarding the impact this year’s tax reform may have on your wealth planning strategies.

Dancing Through The Volatility

by Jeff Garell • October 18, 2018November 9, 2018

Previously, we blogged about possible seasonal weakness heading into September/October. The possible came to pass, with the stock market trading in an unsettled fashion. Volatility has been high as investors weigh the effects of rising interest rates, tariffs and potentially slowing global growth against the backdrop of corporate earnings season. Investors don’t like uncertainty, and the increased number of factors that could cause trouble has not gone over well on Wall Street.

The good news? The underlying economy remains strong. Wage growth is solid, though the pace of increase could be a concern (inflationary), which we’re watching. Corporate profits had a very good 3Q, with 80% of the publicly traded companies exceeding Q3 estimates.

The markets are trying to digest rising interest rates, and so far it’s been orderly—but we expect volatility to remain high over the next 18 months as interest rates normalize back to historical levels. Current fear gauges are also starting to show excessive levels—which is a contrarian good thing for the markets. So, fundamentally, these elements should help stocks in the coming months.

Finally, a word on politics. As you know we typically stay away from political discussions, wading in if/when it relates directly to the markets and your accounts. Clients are asking us about the impact, if any, from the Supreme Court process, upcoming midterm elections and/or the White House. So far, little if any impact.

We use the following analogy: The markets are like a well-conditioned dancer who depends on strong legs (corporate profits) and a stable dance surface (the economy). While the musical tune from one administration to another may change, merely affecting the dancer’s style, the markets should remain spry and upright as long as the economy and profits are stable and growing.

No matter your dance tune preference, we value your business, friendship and any questions and comments you have.